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Can someone supply a good breakdown of Yirmiyahu's 70 year prophecy, and the misinterpretations of the prophecy? This is what I've learned in the past:

  1. Yirmiyahu made a prophecy that 70 years after the exile started, the Jews will return to Israel.

  2. There are different possible starting points for calculating the 70 years.

  3. Both Belshatzar and Achashverosh miscalculated the end of the 70 years, and threw a party using the vessels of the Beit HaMikdash.

  4. The Jews indeed returned to Israel when the real 70 years ended.

Where is Yirmiyahu's prophecy recorded?

What were the possible starting points for calculating the 70 years?

What were Belshatzar and Achashverosh's mistakes?

What was the real calculation, i.e. how was the prophecy actually fulfilled?

What other (if any) details am I missing?

Menachem
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  • Consider adding something like: What are the possible ending points for calculating the 70 years? (was it when the decree was issued by Cyrus, the Mizbeach put up, the Heichal put up? etc. There might be different understandings about this. Just speculating.) – Double AA Feb 03 '13 at 23:49
  • "Both Belshatzar and Achashverosh miscalculated the end of the 70 years": as did Daniyel, according to the g'mara in M'gila. – msh210 Feb 04 '13 at 00:19
  • If Daniyel did then it can't be too bad if Chazal did too. http://judaism.stackexchange.com/q/17223/759 – Double AA Feb 04 '13 at 00:23
  • http://www.zujava.com/introduction-to-the-megillah-of-esther-timeline – Menachem Feb 04 '13 at 14:29
  • @msh210 You've got to see Malbim's understanding of that! (Malbim to the relevant pasuk in Daniyel) – Double AA Feb 05 '13 at 01:13
  • http://blog.webyeshiva.org/insights-in-yirmiyahu-the-seventy-year-prophecy/ – Menachem Feb 04 '14 at 23:21
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    Good timeline from Nevuchadnetzar's reign until the rebuilding of the Beit Hamikdash. Includes a breakdown of the 3, 70 year calculations: http://www.dafyomi.co.il/megilah/mg-ch-05.htm – Menachem Feb 26 '14 at 00:16

1 Answers1

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The following is based on Rabbi Aryeh Kaplan's understanding of the history as presented in his introduction to: The Torah Anthology - Book of Esther (translation of Yalkut Me'am Loez by Rabbi Aryeh Kaplan). It is based in part on Megila 11b-12a.

Versions of Yirmiyahu's prophecy: (said in 3331 - 460 BCE)

וְהָיְתָה כָּל הָאָרֶץ הַזֹּאת לְחָרְבָּה לְשַׁמָּה וְעָבְדוּ הַגּוֹיִם הָאֵלֶּה אֶת מֶלֶךְ בָּבֶל שִׁבְעִים שָׁנָה. וְהָיָה כִמְלֹאות שִׁבְעִים שָׁנָה אֶפְקֹד עַל מֶלֶךְ בָּבֶל וְעַל הַגּוֹי הַהוּא נְאֻם יְהֹוָה אֶת עֲו‍ֹנָם וְעַל אֶרֶץ כַּשְׂדִּים וְשַׂמְתִּי אֹתוֹ לְשִׁמְמוֹת עוֹלָם - And all this land shall become waste [and] desolation, and these nations shall serve the king of Babylon for seventy years. And it shall be at the completion of seventy years, I will visit upon the king of Babylon and upon that nation, says the Lord, their iniquity, and upon the land of the Chaldeans, and I will make it for everlasting desolations. (Yermiyahu 25:11-12)

כִּי כֹה אָמַר יְהֹוָה כִּי לְפִי מְלֹאת לְבָבֶל שִׁבְעִים שָׁנָה אֶפְקֹד אֶתְכֶם וַהֲקִמֹתִי עֲלֵיכֶם אֶת דְּבָרִי הַטּוֹב לְהָשִׁיב אֶתְכֶם אֶל הַמָּקוֹם הַזֶּה - For so said the Lord: For at the completion of seventy years of Babylon I will remember you, and I will fulfill My good word toward you, to restore you to this place. (Yirmiyahu 29:10)

בִּשְׁנַת אַחַת לְמָלְכוֹ אֲנִי דָּנִיֵּאל בִּינֹתִי בַּסְּפָרִים מִסְפַּר הַשָּׁנִים אֲשֶׁר הָיָה דְבַר יְהֹוָה אֶל יִרְמִיָה הַנָּבִיא לְמַלֹּאות לְחָרְבוֹת יְרוּשָׁלִַם שִׁבְעִים שָׁנָה In the first year of his reign, I, Daniel, contemplated the calculations, the number of the years that the word of the Lord had come to Jeremiah the prophet, since the destruction of Jerusalem seventy years. (Daniel 9:2)

Possible starting points for the seventy years

  1. 3319 (442 BCE) - Rise of Babylonian Kingdom (King Nevuchadnetzar)
  2. 3320 (441 BCE) - Nevuchadnetzar overpowers Jewish King Yehoyakim
  3. 3321 (440 BCE) - Yermiyahu first predicts the destruction of the Temple (Yirmiyahu 25)
  4. 3327 (434 BCE) - Nevuchadnetzar exiles Yehoyachin along with the cream of the Jewish people (Malachim Beis 24:14-15)
  5. 3338 (423 BCE) - Destruction of the First Beis Hamikdosh, Exile of Tzidkiyahu

The Calculations

  1. 3389 (372 BCE) - Belshatzar understood "seventy years of Babylon" to mean 70 years from the rise of the kingdom. He calculated 70 years from when Nevuchadnetzar became king, made a banquet using the vessels of the Beis Hamikdosh and was killed that night (Daniel 5)
  2. 3390 (369 BCE) - Daniel calculated seventy years from when Nevuchadnetzar overpowered Yehoyakim. When he saw that the time was nearly up and no redemption was in sight he thought the Jewish peoples sins had caused the delay and began to pray and fast. The angel Gavriel appeared to him and explained his miscalculation (Daniel chapter 9).
  3. 3391 (370 BCE) - Koresh calculated 70 years from Yirmiyahu's prophecy, and orders the rebuilding of the Beis Hamikdosh. However this was not a full-fledged redemption but rather only Hashem "remembering" His people (Megila 12a), since it was 70 years from the exile of Bavel (as recorded in Yirmiyahu), not 70 years from the destruction of Yerushalayim (as recorded in Daniel). Few Jews answered this call and the building was halted shortly after when Achashverosh became king.
  4. 3395 (366 BCE) - Achashverosh understood "seventy years of Babylon" to mean 70 years from the exile of the kingdom. He calculated 70 years from the exile of Yehoyachin; one of the reasons for the feast 3 years into his rule (Esther 1:3) [considered 70 years because parts of the years where multiple kings reigned were counted extra]
  5. 3408 (353 BCE) - The final calculation - 70 years after the actual destruction of the Beis Hamikdosh, Daryavesh II allowed them to rebuild it (Ezra 4:24, see Rashi)

With the above timeline in mind, the GR"A, in a note on Seder Olam Rabbah, explains that there were three 70 year periods.

Period 1: Rise of Nevuchadnetzar until the fall of the Babylonian Empire with Belshatzar's death.

Period 2: From the Overpowering of King Yehoyachin until the "remembering of the Jewish People, when Koresh gave permission to start rebuilding the Beit Hamikdash.

Period 3: From the Destruction of the Holy Temple until the Rebuilding of Jerusalem.

Menachem
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Michoel
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  • How do we know Koresh was wrong? He permitted building the Temple after 70 years. – Double AA Feb 04 '13 at 01:00
  • @DoubleAA The fact that a year later Achashveros stopped the building, and they could only start again 17 years later. Additionally, if Achashverosh was wrong, then kal ve'chomer Koresh was. – Michoel Feb 04 '13 at 01:04
  • Who said it the redemption had to be complete? Perhaps the Jews at the time squandered their opportunity by not seizing it, so it was delayed further. Surely God wouldn't have allowed the Temple to be redone by a bunch of sinners! It must mean an opportunity. In fact, if you read what the prophecy actually says, it says that after 70 years I will remember you and you will call out and pray to Me and I will hear and gather in all your exiles. It's a two way street. – Double AA Feb 04 '13 at 01:07
  • @DoubleAA See Megilla 12b: There were two periods of seventy years, the first was "לפקידה בעלמא" - only Hashem remembering His people, when Koresh allowed the Jews to start building the Beis Hamikdash (and some Jews moved back to Eretz Yisroel - Maharsha). – Michoel Feb 05 '13 at 00:00
  • So...we're cool that Koresh didn't make a mistake? If the Jews hadn't squandered their opportunity we could have just been redeemed then. The Maharsha is overestimating by saying 'some'. – Double AA Feb 05 '13 at 01:11
  • @DoubleAA See edit. – Michoel Feb 05 '13 at 01:19
  • I still don't see what isn't real about Koresh's interpretation in your presentation. Also, you should clarify that you are quoting R Aryeh Kaplan (late 20th Century) and not R Yaakov Culi (early 18th century). Finally, you have in no way dealt with the verses in Yirmeyahu. Are they in error? They clearly state after 70 years of Bavel the Jews will only be redeemed if they seek out God. (You should also check out the three other recordings of the Seventy Years prophecy: II Divrei 36:21 and Zech 1:12 , 7:5 all of which support that Koresh is right.) – Double AA Feb 05 '13 at 04:27
  • Also, you should be aware that Yirmeyahu 25 self-identifies as being in the first year of Nevuchadnezzar's reign. Also Rashi and Seder Olam both put Nevuchadnezzar's victory over Yehoyakim (which Daniel 1:1 puts in the 3th (out of 11) of Yehoyakim) as the last year of his life (ie the 3rd year of his rebellion, in which he was killed), which is only 3 months before Yehoyachin is exiled. – Double AA Feb 05 '13 at 04:45
  • @DoubleAA: Wasn't Belshatzar's death, 70 years after nevuchadnezzar started, the completion of the prophecy in Yirmiyahu 25, since that was the end of babylon, and the beginning of persian rule? – Menachem Feb 05 '13 at 18:32
  • @Menachem Exactly my point. Koresh is right, not mistaken or unreal. (Incidentally, you should know there is lot of slight variations on all the years in Jewish sources, even before trying to understand the secular chronology, so don't think what is presented above is the absolute definitive meaning of Yirmeyahu.) – Double AA Feb 05 '13 at 18:36
  • So, just to confirm: Yirmiyahu 25 was fulfilled in 3389, Yirmiyahu 29 was fulfilled in 3391, and Daniel 9 was fulfilled in 3408. Is that correct? – Menachem Feb 05 '13 at 18:51
  • @Menachem "correct": Do you mean do all Jewish sources agree on that? Definitely not. In fact, I've never actually seen anyone explicit who views Yirmeyahu 25 and 29 as separate prophecies, but that doesn't mean they don't exist. The whole correlation to absolute years is a little wacky because kings don't always die on New Years (as noted already by Rava). – Double AA Feb 05 '13 at 19:20
  • Interesting quote from here - http://vbm-torah.org/archive/daniel/19daniel.htm#_ftn5 - Eighteen years passed from Nevukhadnetzar's rise to power until the destruction of Jerusalem. Eighteen years passed from the return to the land in the days of Cyrus until the building of the Temple in the second year of Darius the Persian. Hence, there are two different systems for counting seventy years, and they overlap throughout the 52 years between the destruction of Jerusalem and the return to the land. – Menachem Feb 05 '13 at 20:42
  • @DoubleAA You are welcome to edit my answer if you feel you can make anything clearer. – Michoel Feb 05 '13 at 23:25
  • @Michoel I have tried to improve it. Feel free to adjust further. – Double AA Feb 06 '13 at 06:34
  • @DoubleAA Looks quite good, thanks. Just wanted to clarify that I made a few additions to Rabbi Kaplan's introdution (mainly from my third revision on). – Michoel Feb 06 '13 at 08:09
  • What do you mean by "Final calculation?" – andrewmh20 Mar 27 '16 at 15:53
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    @andrewmh20 You mean who made the calculation? The Medrash doesn't say. It just lists a whole bunch of mistakes others had made and then presents what it claims is that 'actual' meaning of the prophecy. Midrashim aren't usually presenting historical facts anyway, so "who" made the claim is kind of an anachronistic question. Historically probably close to nothing in this Midrash actually happened (Chaldean kings throwing parties about some old Jew's dying words?? not to mention all the Persian kings whose reigns the Midrash just skips. Really the Midrash is teaching us to pine for redemption.). – Double AA Mar 30 '16 at 17:01
  • @DoubleAA my mistake, I didn't realize he was quoting a Midrash. I thought the op was bringing a list of people who understood the calculation in different ways....so it was unclear when he said "final calculation" what makes it final/who's calculation it is..../is it most correct? – andrewmh20 Mar 30 '16 at 17:07
  • @andrewmh20 The Midrash does indeed tell "a list of people who understood the calculation in different ways". Again, historically, probably never happened. Midrashically, an elegant depiction of the desire for redemption (and the ups and downs of waiting for it) and of the exalted status of the Jewish people in the world. (FFR references to Bavli Megilla 10-16 are to an Aggadic Midrash (complete with proems, etc.) on the book of Esther which got printed there somehow.) – Double AA Mar 30 '16 at 17:09
  • @DoubleAA I understand, but The previous were all attributed to certain people....is the "final" one supposed to be the correct understanding? – andrewmh20 Mar 30 '16 at 17:11
  • @andrewmh20 I suppose. Perhaps "the one that happened" is better than "correct" as even within the world of the Midrash you could argue that all the possibilities were valid, pending proper prayer/repentance by the Jews. This last one is just the one where the Jews seized the opportunity. – Double AA Mar 30 '16 at 17:12
  • @DoubleAA When you say "actually happened" you're assuming that we only call the prophecy concluded when the temple is built....that's not so clear. Ie from the beginning of bavel until koresh fits yeshayahu better than or at least as well the "final" one. – andrewmh20 Mar 30 '16 at 17:17
  • @andrewmh20 I'm just presenting the timeline of the Midrash. That does seem to be the Midrash's assumption, yes. Indeed historically probably Koresh was the intended meaning of the prophecy. Midrashim though are good at describing/ascribing new and/or multiple meanings to things. – Double AA Mar 30 '16 at 17:19