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There are a number of official statistics concerning the population of the Jewish Race and the Religion. But I have never seen one which tried to account for the definition used on this site. A definition which never expires, and does not concern itself with personal practices, knowledge, or the purity of the genetics. For thousands of years, particularly during the birth of Christianity, Jews have left their faith and their communities, most of them certainly forgetting their heritage after a generation or two. Has their ever been any work done to estimate the number of lost Jews, and calculate a probably number of descendants (on the mothers side)?

In short, going by the biblical definition of who is a Jew, what would be a good estimated population number?

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Jonathon
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  • תיקו this answer is going to have to wait until Eliyahu Hanavi comes to let us know the Messiah is here – Gershon Gold Sep 17 '15 at 20:04
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    @GershonGold But an educated guess may be possible. – Ypnypn Sep 17 '15 at 20:06
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    @GershonGold, http://judaism.stackexchange.com/questions/60661/will-moshiach-identify-jews-currently-thought-to-be-non-jews – Yishai Sep 17 '15 at 20:10
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    Is this on topic? – Double AA Sep 17 '15 at 20:21
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    @DoubleAA, it's asking "How many Jews are there according to Judaism's definition of 'Jew'?", where that latter definition exists. IMO that's on-topic, much as "How many kosher sukos are built each year?" is. (And the how-many-Jews question is IMO more interesting than the how-many-sukos question. But that's neither here nor there.) – msh210 Sep 17 '15 at 20:32
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    "Biblical definition" is an odd thing to call it. I mean, it's based on the Bible, but isn't explicit therein AFAIK. "Halachic definition" would be more accurate (and, I think, more usual). – msh210 Sep 17 '15 at 20:33
  • I'm voting to close this question as off-topic because it is impossible to answer – Gershon Gold Sep 17 '15 at 20:42
  • @GershonGold I think it should be quite doable to piece together a statistically valid estimation. By what logic are you claiming to consider it impossible to answer? – Jonathon Sep 17 '15 at 21:19
  • Wikipedia for one states that something called the "Jewish Encyclopedia" has some numbers on historic conversions rates. And there have been studies into the Jewish makeup of the early Christian church (http://www.hts.org.za/index.php/HTS/article/viewFile/430/329). – Jonathon Sep 17 '15 at 22:26
  • Given that there is an estimate of 10% of the Roman Empire at one time was Jewish and another estimate that 50% of the Jews in Spain succumbed to the pressure to convert in 1492, and we do not really know how many females succumbed in any other persecution, and there is no real way of tracing a completely female Jewish line, I do not think that it is possible to get a valid statistical estimate. – sabbahillel Sep 17 '15 at 22:29
  • @sabbahillel I don't think you understand the question. No one is considering tracing family lines. Simply knowing the numbers you already gave us is enough to estimate the number of lost Jews. If we know that in 1490 X number of Jews converted in Spain, than there will exist population statistics that will give us an estimate of the current population of these converted Jews. – Jonathon Sep 17 '15 at 22:35
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    @sabbahillel I suspect we can get a Fermi estimate. – msh210 Sep 17 '15 at 22:37
  • @msh210 A Fermi estimate requires knowledge of what circumstances would enter the calculation and some idea what the various values of the factors are. For example, Rabbi Wein points out that the number of Jews and Chinese during Roman times was estimated to be the same. Look at the difference now. – sabbahillel Sep 17 '15 at 23:38
  • @JonathonWisnoski not necessarily as I do not think that we can get an estimate of the purely female line numbers with no "nonJewish" females mixed in (since only those females would still fit the definition). – sabbahillel Sep 17 '15 at 23:39
  • @sabbahillel But we are not interested in calculating family lines, or calculating backwards. If 1% of the Population of Spain was Converted Jews at 1492, then on average ~1% of the female population would be technically Jewish (assuming we saw a generally gender neutral conversion rate), and therefore ~1% of the babies born would be Jewish. And again, specifically 1% of this next generation's females would be Jewish. Maybe my math is wrong, but I am certain that the correct formula exists. These numbers would give us a total current population of .5 million Lost (Spanish-Inquisition) Jews. – Jonathon Sep 18 '15 at 00:46

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