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I write this in summer of 2023 (5783). This year Tisha b'Av begins on a Wednesday night. However, in looking back over recent years, I notice that the observance of Tisha b'Av began on a Saturday night in 2022, 2021, 2019, 2018, 2016 and 2015 -- six times out of the past eight years. That seems like an unusual stretch of Sunday fasts, especially since I don't think any other holidays have had recurring stretches like that in the same period of time.

Just based on randomness alone, one would expect the observance of Tisha b'Av to fall on a Sunday roughly 1/2 of the time (because Tisha b'Av cannot fall on a Monday, Wednesday or Friday, so the only possible days are Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday -- and if it falls on a Saturday the fast is observed on Sunday). Is there some calendrical explanation as to why it's happened so often lately, or is it just a statistical inevitability that you'll get runs like this every once in a while (like how if you flip a coin 1000 times you're almost definitely going to get a run of 15 heads in a row somewhere in there)?

mweiss
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  • @magicker72 Not quite. Tisha Bav is observed on Sunday even when it falls on Shabbat, so a Sunday fast is paired with two settings for the other holidays (in this case Rosh Hashana on Monday five times and Tuesday once). In any event statistical inevitability is about as meaningful an answer as possible. – Double AA Jul 24 '23 at 01:03
  • Related: https://judaism.stackexchange.com/questions/13034/do-more-fasts-fall-out-on-monday-and-thursday-or-does-it-just-feel-that-way – Menachem Jul 24 '23 at 02:37
  • If I’m not mistaken, in the five years 2010-2014, it fell on Tuesday four times. – Joel K Jul 24 '23 at 04:40

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