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C3-PO: Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately 3,720 to 1!

K2-SO: There is a ninety-seven point six percent chance of failure.

This happens a lot in Star Wars. Are there any examples of a character failing to do something after being told how unlikely it is that they'll be able to do it successfully?

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Rogue Jedi
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    If someone fails to beat the odds, he/she is statistics. If someone beats the odds, he/she has a story to tell. –  Jan 10 '18 at 14:12
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    Did you not see all the explosions from the TIE-fighters failing to successfully navigate the asteroid belt? – Valorum Jan 10 '18 at 14:16
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    @Valorum They weren't told the odds, though. Only Han's actions count. – Rogue Jedi Jan 10 '18 at 14:19
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    but...specifcally speaking to the question example, that situation has only happened once. Upon hearing how unlikely a shot the Death Star trench run will require, Luke says it's not that hard. When Luke says deflecting training bolts is impossible, Kenobi says it's easy if you don't trust your eyes (essentially), etc.... – NKCampbell Jan 10 '18 at 14:23
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    @NKCampbell I don't understand your comment. Why doesn't the asteroid scene, for example, qualify as an example? – Rogue Jedi Jan 10 '18 at 14:26
  • I'm saying it's the only example @RogueJedi – NKCampbell Jan 10 '18 at 14:43
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    To those voting to close it, the question refers only to actions specifically referred to as statistically unlikely to be successful, of which there are a finite amount. – Rogue Jedi Jan 10 '18 at 16:06
  • what's the source of the K2-SO quote? That doesn't match the transcript I've got – NKCampbell Jan 10 '18 at 18:57
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    @NKCampbell (https://www.sideshowtoy.com/blog/rogue-one-liners-the-best-7-k-2so-quotes/) – Rogue Jedi Jan 10 '18 at 19:36
  • @RogueJedi - yeah, I don't think he actually says that – NKCampbell Jan 10 '18 at 19:51
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    Those who fail aren't ever heard of again, leading to Survivorship Bias – Binary Worrier Jan 11 '18 at 13:04
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    TLJ Spoilers: Doesn't C-3PO point out the bad odds of taking out the battering ram cannon - which they then don't successfully do? – Tin Wizard Jan 11 '18 at 19:52
  • @Walt It could be argued that we don't know whether or not Finn would have succeeded if he wasn't interrupted by someone on his own side. – Rogue Jedi Jan 12 '18 at 17:26

3 Answers3

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In the Last Jedi,

Poe, Finn and Rose concocted a plan to find a slicer to disable the First Order's new tracking technology that allowed them to follow the Resistance.

The odds of such a plan succeeding is logically very low, since security is a vital part of any military operation. It must have been statistically inconceivable that people could just fly over and sneak into a warship without detection. Likewise, the chances that some unauthorised person could successfully break into a specially secured room and tamper with vital equipment, again without detection, must be very low.

In fact, we know the odds are poor, because if the First Order is so lax about security, it stands to reason that the Resistance could've infiltrated and destroyed their ships a long time ago. The fact that they didn't demonstrate just how improbable the plan was. Hence, although no exact numbers were made up on the spot calculated,

when Poe finally told Admiral Holdo of their plans, she exclaimed:

"You have bet the survival of the Resistance on bad odds and put us all at risk!?"

The mission ended up failing disastrously, so the statistically likely thing happened.

edit: at the time of writing the question didn't specify that they had to be told the exact numerical odds first (it only asked if the statistically likely thing ever happened). However, I would argue this incident still fits the new requirements, because:

While planning the highly improbable mission, Finn specifically claimed that:

"You can't get through the security shields undetected. Nobody can."

So effectively, he told Rose and himself that the odds of their success were 0 out of infinity. They went on it anyway with the delusion that finding a master codebreaker would somehow beat the odds. It didn't.

Semaphore
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    Do you have any quotes with the numerical odds of success? – Rogue Jedi Jan 10 '18 at 14:39
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    @RogueJedi No exact numbers given, but Holdo states it was "bad". – Semaphore Jan 10 '18 at 14:55
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    @RogueJedi The studies didn't say – Machavity Jan 10 '18 at 15:48
  • I guess weird force Leia floating through space after her ship blowing up would be pretty unlikely too – Melkor Jan 10 '18 at 17:49
  • @RogueJedi On further thought, I would argue Finn effectively told himself that the numerical odds of success was 0. – Semaphore Jan 11 '18 at 13:22
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    "0 out of infinity" - Well, I would just say that finite number out of infinitely many still leads to probability equal to zero and something we could call "impossible". Probability "measures" the chances for something to happen and in such case we have something that we call a zero-measure set... which can be "ignored" So, there can actually be improbable scenarios, which lead to a success, but in comparison to infinitely many ones that lead to failure, we can boldly call this "statistically impossible" :-) – Kusavil Jan 11 '18 at 15:27
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    I'm not a downvoter but this isn't a particularly good answer, mainly because the example given is largely irrelevant to the question, even as it was originally posted. OP asked about statistical likelihood and gave examples where they were explicitly given numbers, which is a trope in Star Wars. You just gave an example that doesn't use that trope, hence the downvotes. 3 downvotes isn't unusual on a popular question though... every other answer and the question have more downvotes than that. – BlackThorn Jan 11 '18 at 16:26
  • @Semaphore OP didn't specify, but if you have ever watched star wars you know that the heros are always told by a droid that their odds are :1. However, OP altered the question to specify the intent, pray he doesn't alter it any further. – BlackThorn Jan 11 '18 at 16:36
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    "0 out of infinity" simplifies to "0 out of 1." That, or you meant "1 out of infinity" (which, coincidentally, also simplifies to "0 out of 1"). – Draco18s no longer trusts SE Jan 11 '18 at 18:28
  • @Draco18s Well, 1 out of infinity would be probability 0, but isn't impossible. Suppose that we select a single number x uniformly from the set of all real numbers between 0 and 1. The probability of selecting any such x is 1 out of infinity...but some x will be selected. 0 out of 1 odds would be genuinely impossible, so 0 out of infinity odds are actually better than 0 out of 1 odds in some sense, even though both are probability 0. Infinities are weird. – Ray Jan 11 '18 at 19:26
  • @Ray I don't see how you get from A to B, there. I think you're making an allusion to the cardinality of infinities (that there are more ℝ than ℤ), but it is not clear from your comment that that is what you mean. – Draco18s no longer trusts SE Jan 11 '18 at 19:33
  • @Draco18s No need to bring in cardinalities here. Selecting an n uniformly from ℤ would also have probability 0. The issue here is finite vs. infinite. If you make a selection from a finite set, no event with probability 0 will ever happen. But when drawing from an infinite set (countable or uncountable), an event of probability 0 can happen. – Ray Jan 11 '18 at 19:52
  • @Ray Ah, that's what I was missing. You went too mathy for me to follow. – Draco18s no longer trusts SE Jan 11 '18 at 20:00
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    This example only existed due to the movie's agenda, portraying how stubborn males cause destruction – Callum Bradbury Jan 11 '18 at 20:54
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    @CallumBradbury Wow. No. Though you can say this example exists due to the intentional deviation from traditional hero arcs and story lines. – kaine Jan 11 '18 at 22:12
  • @kaine YMMV as to whether that deviation was a good thing. There's a reason traditional hero arcs and story lines seem to predate even bronze age stories such as the Iliad. Personally not a fan of wasting 1/3 of a film that was already too long. – Philbo Jan 12 '18 at 10:15
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Short answer: plenty of them. They did not live to tell the story.

Or they were smart enough not to try, considering the odds.

The most obvious one is when Tarkin disregarded an officer's warning that the rebels have a good chance to destroy the station.

A New Hope

"Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you over-estimate their chances!"

―Tarkin, convinced of the Death Star's invulnerability to the end - quote taken from Wookieepedia

On the example quoted in the question:

C-3PO: Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately 3,720 to 1!

All Imperial pilots trying to follow the Millennium Falcon have either abandoned the pursuit or were killed (see explosions all around) - thanks to Valorum for the notice. Nobody managed to catch up with the Falcon.

Statistics are for average men. Han Solo is a Hero (i.e. not average) flying one of the best ships in the known Galaxy. Together, they have completed The Kessel Run in 12 parsecs, which is considered impossible and implies Han is far from being an average person. In fact, he is one of the best pilots in the known galaxy.

Droids calculate probabilities, using average person's capabilities (in D&D terms, 9DEX/9STR/9INT, whatever applies here). Moreover, an extremely skilled pilot may take a non-traditional approach to the question, if applicable, which would never be used by a droid.

Example (quoted from the Kessel Run Wookieepedia page)

The Kessel Run was a hyperspace route used by smugglers and unscrupulous freighter captains to move spice from the spice mines of Kessel at the behest of the Pyke Syndicate, who relied on the foolhardy Kessel Runs to deliver the illicit substance to their customers. Han Solo, captain of the Millennium Falcon, claimed to have made the infamous run in less than 12 parsecs, boasting about his ship's ability to endure shorter but more hazardous routes through hyperspace. By doing so, Solo broke a long-held record.

Another example: in The Force Awakens, Han Solo

jumps out of hyperspace behind the shields of the Starkiller Base,

which by all means was considered impossible.

Rogue One - Jyn and her crew were told about improbability of their mission,

but made it, at the cost of their lives

Edit: The Last Jedi - too many examples to quote here, Rebel heroes try desperate actions to save their cause, and fail almost always. Name just two:

  • Finn and Rose's

attempt to disable the hyperspace tracker (failed)

  • Finn's attempt to

destroy the battering cannon (failed)

Heroes (in Star Wars and similar genre universes) do not die stupid deaths, they die heroically. However, villains may fail to make a reality check in their arrogance - see my example at the beginning of the answer.

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TimSparrow
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    Downvoted becase I believe the OP referred is referring to the trope: of a main character, on-screen, in any work (not just Star Wars), being told the odds and failing. In other words, "the odds" are there mostly to ramp up dramatic tension -- but when does the "logical" result happen? – Shawn V. Wilson Jan 11 '18 at 04:36
  • @ShawnV.Wilson It just doesn’t happen this way. Heroes don’t die, but if they do, they die heroic death, not stupid. I cannot find such example in the Star Wars movies. If we go generalizing, it makes the question too broad. – TimSparrow Jan 11 '18 at 09:01
  • @TimSparrow G.R.R Martin disagrees with you... – T. Sar Jan 11 '18 at 10:28
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    @T.Sar again, the question is about Star Wars universe, not any other, and not real life. – TimSparrow Jan 11 '18 at 10:43
  • @TimSparrow Fair enough. Your comment didn't made clear that you were referring to only the star wars universe, but even so it is a bit of a stretch. I wouldn't call Yoda's death heroic, for example. Nor was Han's death on FA. – T. Sar Jan 11 '18 at 11:13
  • @T.Sar Han's death IS heroic - he was trying to redeem his son, as Luke redeemed his father. Yoda just died of old age - it is natural and matches the character: an old wise man dies of old age, to become one with the force. Again, whether to consider a certain death is heroic is subjective matter. – TimSparrow Jan 11 '18 at 11:30
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    @TimSparrow Also, I would argue that, for a previously well-known fugitive jedi master, dying of old age is both heroic and pretty bad-ass... – xDaizu Jan 11 '18 at 12:24
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    @xDaizu may be not very heroic (I agree here), but at least not stupid. If a hero dies in bed, old and toothless (c), it does not make them less a hero, – TimSparrow Jan 11 '18 at 13:08
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    I think your last example is the only part of this answer you need. A character on-screen is told that there is a chance of failure, they decide to take that chance, and they fail. Everything else is just a restatement of the question. – DaaaahWhoosh Jan 11 '18 at 17:53
  • @DaaaahWhoosh I don't think the Tarkin example fits. The odds in question refer to the Rebels and their chances of destroying the Death Star, not any odds in relation to Tarkin. The odds of Tarkin surviving a low level attack by a couple of rogue ships was, as far as Tarkin was concerned, extremely high. This isn't an example of someone being told how unlikely something is and proving the statistics wrong. It's an example of someone being told that there is "a danger", disbelieving the odds and then falling victim to an incredibly unlikely event. The opposite of what was asked. – The Dark Lord Jan 12 '18 at 11:23
  • @TheDarkLord the concerned officer said that if the Rebels succeeded, the destruction of the base is imminent. He clearly understood the danger. – TimSparrow Jan 12 '18 at 13:41
  • Yes, but my point is that the odds were still very low for the Rebels, meaning that they were very high for Tarkin. So he didn't die according to the odds but against them. "Great shot, kid. That was one in a million" etc. – The Dark Lord Jan 12 '18 at 13:49
  • "They did not live to tell the story. Or they were smart enough not to try, considering the odds." That's a good description of r/whatcouldgowrong. – Fabian Röling Jan 12 '18 at 16:51
  • Updated the answer after watching "The Last Jedi" – TimSparrow Mar 19 '18 at 21:55
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Are there any examples of a character failing to do something after being told how unlikely it is that they'll be able to do it successfully?

Surely this has to be a definitive example.

Obi-Wan Kenobi: It's over, Anakin! I have the high ground!

Anakin Skywalker: You underestimate my power!

Obi-Wan Kenobi: Don't try it.

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Jeremy French
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