What determines price fluctuation of groceries

Question

I understand that the price of gasoline fluctuates based on the trading of the commodity oil futures. Is it the same for grocery items? i.e Can I expect the price of produce, meat and fish to fluctuate based on the commodity futures?

Answer 1

Yes and no.

First off, commodity prices reflect the cost of a good about 3 steps back in the retail supply chain; the agreed-upon price for the raw foodstuff between farmers/ranchers and manufacturers. Your grocer may carry bags of whole grain wheat, but that's certainly not all he carries that contains it. Same for corn, rice and other staple grains, as well as for fruits and vegetables, herbs (yes, you can buy basil by the ton on the CME), meats, various sugars, etc. So, a long-term sustained change in prices of a commodity foodstuff will eventually affect the real cost to you to buy things they're made from.

However, in the short term, the retail supply chain will generally act as a buffer between these prices and the ones you see on the store shelf. Consumers don't like price increases, especially of necessities like food. When food costs go up, consumers can and will very quickly change their spending habits, buying cheaper options to get their needed calories. That makes manufacturers nervous; consumers not buying their product is a worse scenario than consumers buying their product at a reduced gain or even at a loss. So, manufacturers, and suppliers and retailers, will all absorb as much as they can of the cost of a commodities increase before beginning to pass it on to consumers. On the flip side, while consumers like price drops, they don't notice them as much as price increases. So, the supply chain will also absorb a fall in commodity prices by resisting price reductions in the consumer goods, as long as they can get away with it (which is usually longer than the price reduction actually lasts). The net effect is that processed food prices typically follow the gentle upward climb of long-term inflation, and only rarely do you see drastic price increases or decreases.

Where this model breaks down a little bit is in highly perishable foodstuffs, especially seasonal or "wild-managed" foods; fruits and vegetables, seafood, etc. The limited time in which the stuff can be sold makes the process of getting a fish out of the ocean and a fruit off the tree and into your grocery store much more market-driven; the producers, suppliers and grocers are all in constant contact over what's available and how much they can get for what price. The prices therefore are typically a lower markup (unlike highly processed grain-based foods, there's not much added value to be marked up between the apple farmer picking the fruit and the grocer putting it on display), but also much more volatile; if there's a bumper crop of fruit, the farmer has to unload it all or it goes to waste, while similarly if an early freeze decimated the apple crop, the suppliers can't just get some of last year's bumper crop out of storage; they fight with everyone else for what little made it to market. Farmers will sometimes intentionally let excess crop spoil in order to maintain a minimum price for what they sell (the rest can at least be composted and used for fertilizer, saving them some money on maintenance), but there's no silver bullet for a shortage. This is why a lot of these foods, especially seafood, are considered luxury items; they're not stable enough for everyone to get as much as they want whenever they want, unlike staple grains.

Answer 2

No. Some grocery stores may discount specific products based on inventory to drive sales using "loss leaders" where the product is intentionally priced as a loss for the business. While commodity futures may impact some prices, I'm not sure one can easily extract the changes solely due to futures shifts.

Answer 3

That is true. Since commodities are basically a futures contract, their actual price is not reflected in grocery stores. It is more of a supply and demand issue with your grocer.