First, I need to set a "reference frame" for this comparison, to eliminate unneeded quarrels:
I follow the approach (presented here as "The idea commonly espoused in the Jewish world today" thanks to DoubleAA) that accepts the fact that G-d constant "controls" every single detail of His Creation** (and not a "slimmed-down" version of Him that occasionally forgets it or neglects it or disconnects from it).
In this approach, is there any difference between what we call plain "מזל" (Luck - good one or bad one) and what we call "השגחה פרטית" (G-d's personal guidance, please correct me if I'm wrong with translation)?