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So GRRM just confirmed that one of the rumors about ASOIF are true. But what I don't understand is:

[Winds of Winter spoilers]

If Jon Snow is Lyanna's child with Rhaegar, why would his claim to the Iron Throne come before Aegon Targaryen VI?

Aegon is Rhaeger's real child born from the marriage bed with Elia, why would rumors think that Jon Snow has a better claim to the throne than Aegon? Jon regardless of mother is still baseborn?

Aegon
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Maggick
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  • can u add the link to the article where GRRM confirms R + L = J – KharoBangdo Aug 13 '14 at 04:25
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    It is not 100% confirmed but in speculation. http://www.vanityfair.com/vf-hollywood/2014/08/game-of-thrones-george-rr-martin-readers-have-predicted-ending – Maggick Aug 13 '14 at 04:26
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    In the article GRRM says that a couple of people have theorized the ending. J = L + R isn't really an ending – ediblecode Aug 13 '14 at 11:44
  • Even if we believe this theory - who lives that can testify it? – Martin Schröder Aug 13 '14 at 13:18
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    @Martin Schroder Howland Reed is the only character who will be able to testify that J is the son of L + R. And Varys is the only one who knows the truth about A T VI, even he could be fooling Illyrio. – Maggick Aug 13 '14 at 13:46
  • I'm pretty sure GRRM was being sarcastic, based on his phrasing. Yet further evidence that Jon is The Dude That Was Promised. – Omegacron Aug 13 '14 at 17:17
  • @MichaelEdenfield I am not saying that I think L + R = J is the ending of the story. I totally agree with you that the rumor that GRRM claims to be true must be something else based on how he's said a few people figured it out. Unless a "few" was sarcastic. But I wanted to know if the rumor where true why Jon would be better for the throne than Aegon, why people would think that Dany would marry Jon over Aegon – Maggick Aug 13 '14 at 20:52
  • People who could plausibly have a better claim than Aegon, even if he's genuine, include Aemon (should have succeeded instead of Aegon 70 years ago, which is why he was stuck on the Wall, although of course his claim would now be null ansd void anyway), Bloodraven (was legitimised by Aegon the Unworthy, so should be in the succession along with everyone else), and any Blackfyre descendants in the female line who may be kicking around. It's by no means certain that Aegon has the best claim. – Mike Scott Aug 14 '14 at 05:28
  • Can we all stop using one-letter acronyms for names? Thanks. – TylerH Oct 02 '14 at 13:46
  • I think either one could hypocritically question the legitimacy of the other's claim (not through the rules of succession, but question whether they are who they claim they are, or who their parents are).

    Doesn't matter if the same claim can come back to you, if you have the pretext and can rally people to your claim, whether you win the battles and wars determines how "legitimate" your claim eventually is.

     – PoloHoleSet Jun 27 '16 at 21:08
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    Aegon is the mummer's dragon.... aka Fake Aegon... aka FAegon – Skooba Aug 16 '17 at 20:21
  • should the game-of-thrones tag be deleted as this is about the books and not the show? – svenvo7 Jan 31 '18 at 17:14

3 Answers3

25

The theory is that Rhaegar and Lyanna married in secret, possibly with Septon Meribald officiating, and thereby making Jon legitimate.

Edited to add (spoiler for Game of Thrones season 7 episodes 5 & 7):

Following the revelation that (in the TV series) Rhaegar's marriage to Elia was annulled and he married Lyanna Stark, as discovered by Gillie and witnessed by Bran, this theory is looking pretty good.

Aegon the Conqueror set the precedent for Targaryens to be permitted polygamy as well as incest by marrying both of his sisters.

And the other (and widely held) theory is that Aegon is not really Aegon but a deception perpetrated by Varys and Illyrio. It would take both of these to make Jon the rightful heir, since it's pretty certain that Aegon was born before Jon.

Mike Scott
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    Why Meribald? Is there some clue about that? – TLP Aug 13 '14 at 14:56
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    Merely because he was a wandering septon who would quite likely have been in the right place (Harrenhal) at the right time (after the tourney) to perform a secret wedding. – Mike Scott Aug 13 '14 at 15:16
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    Meribald was at Harrenhal? Is this mentioned anywhere? If so, you should add the quote, it will improve your question quite a lot. – TLP Aug 13 '14 at 17:58
  • Also why wouldn't Meribald have told anyone? What allegiance does he have to the Starks or Targaryens that would cause him not to say anything? Because Meribald wasn't the most honorable septon. – Maggick Aug 13 '14 at 21:35
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    Meribald ia a wandering Septon in the Riverlands, so while we have no evidence as to his whereabouts, Harrenhal would be within his general area of movement. But really, the answer to "Why Meribald" is that this is a work of fiction and so if an obscure Septon becomes very important later, it's going to be an obscure Septon who we've already met, and Meribald is thus the only candidate. – Mike Scott Aug 14 '14 at 05:22
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    Is there any reason Aegon couldn't die? It's not like Martin is afraid of killing off characters. I could imagine the proposed union taking place and J+D uniting to seat Aegon on the throne only for him to die in the process, making J the new king. – Jason Patterson Oct 02 '14 at 19:30
  • Sorry for further spoilers, but why isn 't anybody bothered by the fact Jon was stabbed multiple times of which one was right between the shoulders? Do we expect him to pull a dondarion? Or rather mellisandre a thoros? – user1129682 Jan 03 '15 at 16:57
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    There are at least two means of resurrection available to Jon that have already been used in the series (either Dondarrion-style physical resurrection by Melisandre or warging into Ghost), and he's such a major character that it seems extremely unlikely that he won't be back in some form or other. With the possible extra twist that death releases you from your vows to the Night's Watch, even if you're then resurrected. – Mike Scott Jan 03 '15 at 17:08
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    We would like him to be a central character, but actually he has done nothing but upset people left, right and centre, while bringing thousands of potential enemys through the wall. And his last decision and speech smell a lot like the typical stupid actions that get you killed, when you are a main character in ASOIAF. – user1129682 Jan 03 '15 at 22:58
  • @MikeScott FWIW, the show hasn't given one iota of evidence that Jon Snow is a warg. – TylerH Jun 23 '15 at 19:53
14

There are a few things working against Jon being recognised as the Heir Apparent to the Iron Throne:

Normal Rules of Succession

  • Aegon is older1, 2, therefore he is next-in-line3
  • Jon's parentage would have to be proven first
    • As would Aegon's, but he will have a much easier time doing that with Varys' help
  • Rhaegar and Lyanna's marriage will have to be proven first
  • Daenerys is believed to be the actual heir right now as she is Aerys' eldest child
    • No-one knows Jon is who we think he is, nor that Aegon is alive
  • The Targaryens are not even in possession of the Iron Throne
  • Jon is a member (Lord Commander no less) of the Night's Watch, for life!4
  • Jon's fate is yet unknown
    • Last we see or hear of him, he has been stabbed to death5
  • We do not know what Varys' motives are
    • He may well prefer to support Aegon's claim even after Jon's parentage is proven

If, and only if, Jon overcomes all of these obstacles, then he could be King, according to the normal rules of succession.

Right of Conquest

According to the Right of Conquest, Jon could just take the Throne, just as Aegon the Conqueror and Robert Baratheon did.

He would need an army:

  • Band of Black Brothers
  • A huge number of displaced Free Folk settled in The Gift
  • Free Folk north of The Wall
  • Northmen still loyal to House Stark
  • Melisandre6 and her followers of The Lord of Light.
  • Targaryen loyalists still at large

1. Jon Snow, age calculation

2. Aegon VI Targaryen

3. Comprehensive Rules for Game of Thrones Lines of Succession

4. In an interview GRRM mentions:

The great council would have released Aemon from his maester's oath, so I suppose it would be possible. With an appropriate authority. http://web.archive.org/web/20001005212114/eventhorizon.com/sfzine/chats/transcripts/031899.html

5. If he dies and is revived, technically he has actually upheld his vow!

6. Tinfoil hats on for this section please. It is my belief that Jon is Azor Ahai reborn.

  • Mel alludes to it in aDWD:

Melisandre had practiced her art for years beyond count, and she had paid the price. There was no one, even in her order, who had her skill at seeing the secrets half-revealed and half-concealed within the sacred flames. Yet now she could not even seem to find her king. I pray for a glimpse of Azor Ahai, and R’hllor shows me only Snow.
-A Song of Ice and Fire: A Dance With Dragons, Chapter Thirty (Melisandre).
[emphasis mine]
Möoz
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  • Where does it state that a woman's claim comes before a man's to the Iron Throne? Wouldn't Aegon come before Dany because of gender? – Maggick Aug 14 '14 at 03:24
  • @Maggick It doesn't, what I'm saying is that she is believed to be, as she's the only one that people know is actually alive and real... – Möoz Aug 14 '14 at 03:36
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    ok, I just didn't think women could be heirs besides in Dorne – Maggick Aug 14 '14 at 03:42
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    The point about Daenerys doesn't affect Jon's claim in legal terms, because Rhaegar's children would all be ahead of her in the line of succession, in the same way as Prince William is ahead of Prince Andrew in the UK's line of succession. – Mike Scott Aug 14 '14 at 05:24
  • @MikeScott That's correct (if they can prove they are Rhaegar's) – Möoz Nov 17 '14 at 00:56
  • If Rhaegar died in 281, Jon couldn't be born in 283. Jon therefore must have been born, at the latest, in 282. That puts him within the same birth date range as his half-brother. –  Aug 28 '17 at 23:20
  • Look, timings are hazy at best when it comes to GRRM, those calculations are based on what the fans were able to piece together from the limited amount of info given. – Möoz Aug 29 '17 at 00:04
2

In determining who has the best claim on the iron throne by right of birth there are multiple factors involved.

If it's just between Jon and Aegon first it boils down to if Aegon is the Aegon (Rhaegar and Elia's Aegon) he claims to be (unlikely). Aegon would have the better claim. However there are serious doubt he's Rhaegar and Elia's Aegon and not another Aegon from a different branch of the family tree.

If we go for who has the overall best claim to the throne we have two major hic-ups in forming succession, The Dance with Dragons and the Blackfyre Rebellion.

Basically the Dance with Dragons left Westeros with a rule that female claims came only after male claims with regards to the throne. It is unclear, however, 1) how far through the family tree does it stretch is it son, son, daughter, brother, brother, sister, uncle, uncle, aunt, great uncle, great uncle, great aunt ect. or does it go son, son, brother, brother, uncle, uncle, great uncle, great uncle, daughter. Also then does it merely apply to female persons themselves or does it eliminate their children as well. (son, son, daughter's son, brother, brother, sister's son ect. or son, son, brother, brother, daughter's son)

Then there's untangling the succession of Aegon the Unworthy. Given he legitimized all his kids we don't know if the succession should have gone by birth order or if his trueborn son was actually his son (given Bloodraven put his support behind Daeron II I'm sure that Bloodraven probably had proof Daeron was the real deal).

Finally there's the issue that we don't know what happened to certain branches of the Targaryen line. Aerion Brightflame had an infant son who was passed over on account of a)being a baby and b)being the son of a mad targ prince. We don't know what happened to the son or any decendants. Aerion's elder brother had a "half-wit" daughter we don't know if she married or had children. We don't know about any female blackfyre lines or about any decendents of the prince of dragonflies.

Brouellette
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  • Not a bad answer. Just remember that the (presumed) last Blackfyre was slewn by Barristan - Maelys the Monstrous. Duncan the Small (Prince of Dragonflies) gave up his crown for Jenny of oldstones... – Möoz Nov 17 '14 at 00:59
  • Hence why I specified "Female Blackfyres" and we don't necessarily know the exact legal phrasing of Duncan's disinheritance, he could have simply been moved behind all the decedents of his siblings. – Brouellette Nov 17 '14 at 01:31